How weather conditions impact the outcomes of football matchesPosted By: Sourav Das | August 7, 2017
Football bettors are well aware that there are various factors that influence the outcomes of football matches, but how important do you think it is to factor in the weather conditions while placing football bets? Do drastic changes in weather conditions call for the need to alter one’s betting strategy? Well, you can find all such pertinent data at various informative portals, for instance, Sbat match predictions are often used by punters to place strategic bets and score handsome returns, nevertheless, gaining some first-hand knowledge on the subject is always a good idea (more so if it impacts your betting returns!).
Although basic betting strategies demand that you pay attention to the teams’ forms, their head-to-head record against opponents, seasoned sports bettors are well aware that they need to go far beyond all those figures. While statistical means like Poisson distribution and Brier score method can help you make sound betting decisions, you must also take into account factors such as congested fixtures, new stadiums and changing weather conditions.
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Why weather should be factored in?
Just like it is witnessed in the NFL games, any sudden changes in the weather can alter the course of the football matches too. Unplayable conditions may lead to postponing of the games; however, mild changes such as hot weather, windy conditions, snow and a slight drizzle can be beneficial for certain teams, impacting the number of times the ball finds the back of the net.
Light rain favours passing teams as the moisture sitting on the surface of the ball makes its skim and move faster than normal. But excessive rain can be damaging for the teams that prefer keeping the ball grounded. Furthermore, if the ground gets flooded, the ball may not travel very fast, making it difficult for players to judge the passes. Although the modern-day pitch drainage systems are good enough to avoid such waterlogging situations, it continues to be a concern in the lower football leagues.
The same phenomenon is witnessed during windy conditions. The teams that prefer playing long balls may struggle to gauge the passes, as the wind may alter the ball’s trajectory.
Do hot weather conditions translate into more goals?
Many punters fall for the popular belief that hot weather conditions translate into more number of goals in a football match. However, is that truly the case? Although increased tiredness in players, causing the defenders to slacken, may seem like a sound justification, such weather conditions equally impact the attackers as well.
Analysing the Premier league data over three seasons has revealed that there’s no conclusive evidence of more number of goals scored in the hot months, as against the wet and cold months. Please also note that the hot months normally fall during the beginning and later periods of the football season. And many teams don’t have much to play for during the later periods of the season.
To conclude, it would be fair to say that the impact of weather conditions on football betting is definitely something you should take into consideration, no matter how subtle it may be.